SHOP

BuyNeutral

Shopify Inc · NASDAQ NMS - GLOBAL MARKET

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Price history

AI thesis

SHOP displays a strong medium-term uptrend above major SMAs, but near-term technicals are overextended with an RSI of 70.69 and a bearish MACD crossover. The declining volume trend points to potential near-term exhaustion. We expect a healthy pullback toward the 20-day SMA at 142.01, which will provide an optimal entry opportunity.

Entry zone

$138.00 – $143.00

Target

$165.00

Stop-loss

$129.00

Horizon

4-8 weeks

Buy when · Price pulls back to the entry range between 138.00 USD and 143.00 USD.

Sell when · Price reaches the target of 165.00 USD or falls below the stop-loss of 129.00 USD.

Risks

Near-term pullback risk due to overbought RSI and bearish MACD momentum crossover.
Decreasing volume suggests buying pressure is fading at current levels.
High annualized volatility of 60.98% increases the risk of stop-loss execution.

Confidence

75%

Indicators

RSI (14): 40.2
SMA 20: $149.85
SMA 50: $133.48
SMA 200: $131.28
MACD: 3.43 / 5.37
20d momentum: -1.06%
60d momentum: +32.11%
52w range: $95.40 – $179.01
Volatility (ann.): +59.21%
Volume trend: -30.19%

Option ideas on SHOP

CALL $151.00 · 2026-09-18Buy

Premium $8.45 · Break-even $159.45 · Δ 0.49

This ITM/ATM LEAP option offers an attractive delta of 0.49 and a long horizon to capture SHOP's eventual upside following a short-term pullback.

Buy: SHOP stock pulls down to 142.00 USD or the premium drops to 7.50 USD.

Sell: SHOP stock reaches 165.00 USD or the premium gains 50%.

CALL $158.50 · 2026-09-18Buy

Premium $5.67 · Break-even $164.17 · Δ 0.38

An OTM alternative offering greater leverage but with a higher break-even of 164.17 USD, making it more sensitive to near-term momentum.

Buy: SHOP stock declines to 140.00 USD or the premium drops to 4.80 USD.

Sell: SHOP stock reaches 165.00 USD or the premium doubles.

CALL $151.00 · 2026-10-16Buy

Premium $12.95 · Break-even $163.95 · Δ 0.53

With the highest delta of 0.53 and an additional month of duration, this contract offers the safest profile for capturing long-term growth.

Buy: SHOP stock pulls back to 142.00 USD or the premium drops to 11.50 USD.

Sell: SHOP stock reaches 165.00 USD or the premium gains 45%.

CALL $158.50 · 2026-10-16Buy

Premium $10.02 · Break-even $168.52 · Δ 0.44

A balanced OTM play that gains cushion from the October 2026 expiry, mitigating some of the high 60.98% annualized volatility.

Buy: SHOP stock reaches 141.00 USD or the premium drops to 8.80 USD.

Sell: SHOP stock reaches 165.00 USD or the premium gains 60%.