NFLX
BuyBullishNetflix Inc · NASDAQ NMS - GLOBAL MARKET
Price history
AI thesis
NFLX exhibits strong short-term momentum with the price above SMA20 and SMA50, supported by a bullish MACD crossover. However, declining volume and the overhead SMA200 at 87.04 suggest the upside may be capped in the near term. A tactical long trade targets this SMA200 resistance.
Entry zone
$81.00 – $82.67
Target
$87.00
Stop-loss
$78.50
Horizon
2-4 weeks
Buy when · Price breaks and closes above 83.00 on expanding volume.
Sell when · Price reaches the target of 87.00 or falls below the stop loss at 78.50.
Risks
- Strong overhead resistance at the 200-day SMA of 87.04.
- Declining volume trend of -39.70% suggests weakening buying momentum.
- RSI at 63.45 is approaching overbought territory which could trigger a short-term pullback.
Indicators
- RSI (14)
- 63.4
- SMA 20
- $79.10
- SMA 50
- $75.29
- SMA 200
- $87.04
- MACD
- 2.00 / 1.76
- 20d momentum
- +12.19%
- 60d momentum
- +1.55%
- 52w range
- $67.60 – $126.32
- Volatility (ann.)
- +36.81%
- Volume trend
- -39.70%
Option ideas on NFLX
Premium $0.97 · Break-even $85.97 · Δ 0.25
A cheaper out-of-the-money contract with a delta of 0.25, suitable only if momentum sharply accelerates to overcome the declining volume trend.
Buy: Buy if the stock breaks above 81.00 with increasing daily volume.
Sell: Sell if the underlying reaches 88.00 or if the premium drops below $0.45.
Premium $0.98 · Break-even $86.98 · Δ 0.24
A high-leverage, low-cost option for a more aggressive play on a fast momentum breakout above 82.
Buy: Underlying stock price breaks above 81.50 with an increase in trading volume.
Sell: Underlying stock hits 88.00 or premium reaches 2.00.
Premium $0.90 · Break-even $86.40 · Δ 0.23
This cheaper out-of-the-money contract requires a strong breakout past the 85.00 USD resistance to become highly profitable.
Buy: Buy if the underlying asset breaks and holds above 81.00 USD on rising volume.
Sell: Sell if the underlying asset reaches 85.00 USD or the premium drops below 0.40 USD.
Premium $2.20 · Break-even $84.20 · Δ 0.44
This contract offers decent delta exposure to capture the short-term upswing toward 88 with a relatively low premium cost.
Buy: Underlying stock price is between 78.50 and 80.50.
Sell: Underlying stock hits 88.00 or contract premium reaches 4.00.
Premium $2.07 · Break-even $83.57 · Δ 0.43
With a delta of 0.43 and a low premium of 2.07 USD, this contract provides excellent leverage to capture the move towards the 85.00 USD target.
Buy: Buy when the underlying asset price is between 78.00 USD and 79.50 USD.
Sell: Sell if the underlying asset reaches 85.00 USD or if the premium drops below 1.00 USD.
Premium $1.04 · Break-even $87.54 · Δ 0.25
A higher leverage, out-of-the-money call that offers low absolute cost but requires a full breakout past the SMA200 to be highly profitable.
Buy: Buy if the underlying stock clears $81.50 on rising volume.
Sell: Sell if the premium doubles or if the stock fails to hold the SMA50 support at $74.60.
Premium $2.25 · Break-even $84.75 · Δ 0.43
This near-the-money call contract offers decent delta sensitivity to participate in the short-term recovery toward the SMA200.
Buy: Buy if the stock holds above $80.00 and the contract premium remains under $2.40.
Sell: Sell if the option premium gains 50% or if the underlying stock drops below $74.00.
Premium $2.22 · Break-even $82.72 · Δ 0.44
This contract provides a solid delta of 0.44 to capture the near-term swing towards 85.00 while the extremely long expiry minimizes theta decay.
Buy: Underlying stock price breaks above 79.00.
Sell: Underlying stock price reaches 85.00 or premium gains 50%.
Premium $2.22 · Break-even $83.22 · Δ 0.45
This near-the-money contract offers solid delta exposure at 0.45, providing high sensitivity to the anticipated upward movement toward the 88 target.
Buy: Buy if the underlying stock remains above 79.00 for two consecutive trading sessions.
Sell: Sell if the underlying stock hits 88.00 or the contract premium depreciates by 50%.
Premium $1.00 · Break-even $85.50 · Δ 0.25
This out-of-the-money contract is cheaper but carries a lower delta of 0.25, making it highly speculative for a short-term target of 85.00.
Buy: Underlying stock price breaks above 80.50 with strong volume.
Sell: Underlying stock price reaches 85.00 or drops below 75.00.
Premium $1.08 · Break-even $86.08 · Δ 0.26
Cheaper, lower-delta leverage play suited for a direct move to the target but requires a strong breakout above 85.00 USD to become profitable.
Buy: Stock price rises above 80.50 USD.
Sell: Stock price reaches 86.00 USD or option premium drops below 0.50 USD.
Premium $2.21 · Break-even $84.71 · Δ 0.44
This contract offers a solid balance of delta and premium, providing highly leveraged exposure to a potential rally toward the SMA200 with a reasonable break-even level.
Buy: Buy when NFLX stock trades above 80.50 USD with positive daily MACD momentum.
Sell: Sell to close if the option premium rises to 4.50 USD or if the underlying stock falls below 76.50 USD.
Premium $0.99 · Break-even $87.49 · Δ 0.25
This out-of-the-money contract represents a cheaper leverage play, though it requires a more substantial breakout above the key resistance to reach profitability.
Buy: Buy if the stock breaks out above 81.50 USD on expanding volume.
Sell: Sell to close if the premium doubles to 2.00 USD or if the underlying stock fails to hold the SMA50 of 74.63 USD.
Premium $2.51 · Break-even $83.51 · Δ 0.46
This near-the-money contract provides strong delta exposure to capture a short-term momentum shift past the 81 resistance level.
Buy: Buy when NFLX stock trades above 80.00 with expanding daily volume.
Sell: Sell when the underlying stock reaches 88.00 or the contract premium falls below 1.20.
Premium $2.53 · Break-even $84.53 · Δ 0.46
This contract provides balanced leverage with a 0.46 delta and a relatively low premium, making it a cost-effective way to capture a push toward 88.
Buy: Buy when the underlying NFLX stock price trades between 79.50 and 81.00.
Sell: Sell when the underlying stock reaches 88.00 or if the option premium falls below 1.20.
Premium $1.23 · Break-even $87.23 · Δ 0.27
At a premium of 1.23, this highly leveraged out-of-the-money contract offers substantial returns if NFLX breaks past 85 quickly, though the low 0.27 delta increases risk.
Buy: Buy if the underlying stock breaks above 81.50 with a spike in volume.
Sell: Sell when the underlying stock price reaches 88.00 or if the premium doubles to 2.46.
Premium $2.17 · Break-even $83.67 · Δ 0.44
This contract offers a solid 0.44 delta to capitalize on short-term upward momentum with reasonable premium risk.
Buy: NFLX stock price clears 80.50.
Sell: NFLX stock price reaches 86.50 or the option premium drops below 1.00.
Premium $0.96 · Break-even $86.46 · Δ 0.24
The high strike of 85.50 and lower delta make this a speculative option with a break-even very close to our primary target.
Buy: NFLX stock breaks 82.50 with a surge in volume.
Sell: NFLX stock reaches 87.00 or premium drops to 0.40.
Premium $2.30 · Break-even $85.30 · Δ 0.45
This contract offers a solid 0.45 delta and a strike close to the current price, maximizing potential gains on a rally toward the 200-day SMA.
Buy: Underlying stock price holds above 81.00 USD.
Sell: Option premium reaches 4.00 USD or stock price drops below 77.00 USD.
Premium $1.04 · Break-even $88.04 · Δ 0.25
An out-of-the-money contract providing higher leverage but lower probability of profit given its 0.25 delta.
Buy: The stock price clears 82.00 USD on strong intraday momentum.
Sell: The stock price reaches 87.00 USD or option premium loses 50% of value.
Premium $2.16 · Break-even $85.66 · Δ 0.43
This slightly out-of-the-money call offers a balanced delta of 0.43 to capitalize on short-term momentum toward the 87.50 target.
Buy: Buy if the underlying stock price breaks above 82.00.
Sell: Sell if the contract premium doubles or the stock drops below 76.50.
Premium $0.96 · Break-even $88.96 · Δ 0.24
This strike is above the SMA200 resistance, making it a lower-probability bet despite the lower premium.
Buy: Buy only if NFLX breaks and holds above 83.50 USD with increased volume.
Sell: Sell if target of 87.50 USD is met or if premium decays past 0.50 USD.
Premium $2.37 · Break-even $86.37 · Δ 0.44
This contract offers solid delta exposure at a reasonable premium, allowing investors to capitalize on a breakout past 84.00 before late 2026.
Buy: Buy if the stock stays above 81.50 and the premium is below 2.50.
Sell: Sell if the stock price reaches 88.00 or the premium rises to 4.50.
Premium $0.96 · Break-even $88.46 · Δ 0.24
A high-leverage, cheaper alternative targeting the SMA200 level, though it has a lower delta of 0.24.
Buy: Buy if stock momentum accelerates past 82.50.
Sell: Sell if the stock reaches 87.50 or if the premium drops by 50%.
Premium $2.41 · Break-even $85.91 · Δ 0.45
This near-the-money option offers solid delta of 0.45 to capture stock gains up to the 87.00 target level. The long expiration minimizes immediate theta decay during potential short-term consolidation.
Buy: The stock price holds above 81.50 on stable daily volume.
Sell: The underlying stock hits 87.00 or the contract premium falls below 1.20.
Premium $2.22 · Break-even $86.72 · Δ 0.43
This near-the-money call provides good delta leverage to capture the momentum shift toward the 200-day SMA. The premium is reasonable relative to the stock price.
Buy: Stock price breaks above 83.00 on daily closing basis.
Sell: Stock price reaches 87.00 or contract premium declines by 40%.
Premium $1.25 · Break-even $88.25 · Δ 0.27
The strike price aligns exactly with our target resistance, meaning the contract requires a breakout past the SMA200 to achieve profitability, increasing its risk profile.
Buy: Buy only if NFLX breaks above $83.50 on expanding volume.
Sell: Sell if the stock struggles to cross $85.00 within two weeks or the premium drops below $0.60.
Premium $2.56 · Break-even $85.56 · Δ 0.46
This contract provides a decent delta of 0.46 and captures the short-term upward momentum toward the SMA200 resistance with relatively lower premium risk.
Buy: Buy if NFLX price sustains above $81.00.
Sell: Sell if NFLX reaches $87.00 or if the premium drops below $1.30.
Premium $2.40 · Break-even $86.40 · Δ 0.45
This slightly out-of-the-money call provides good leverage to capture a move toward the SMA200. The long expiry minimizes immediate theta decay.
Buy: NFLX stock price sustains above 82.50.
Sell: NFLX reaches 86.50 or the option premium falls below 1.20.
Premium $1.09 · Break-even $87.59 · Δ 0.25
The strike price of 86.5 is too close to our technical target of 87.00, making it highly dependent on a complete breakout above the 200-day SMA.
Buy: Buy only if the underlying breaks cleanly above 83.50 with a volume spike.
Sell: Sell if the underlying falls back below the 50-day SMA at 74.88.
Premium $2.33 · Break-even $84.83 · Δ 0.44
This contract offers a solid 0.44 delta and a reasonable entry premium to play the momentum towards the 87.00 target.
Buy: Buy when the underlying price stabilizes above 80.80.
Sell: Sell when the underlying stock reaches 87.00 or if the premium drops below 1.15.
Premium $1.02 · Break-even $89.52 · Δ 0.24
The strike price is above our key target of 87.00, meaning it requires a breakout past the 200-day SMA to be profitable. This makes it a lower probability setup despite the lower premium.
Buy: Stock price convincingly breaks above the 200-day SMA at 87.04.
Sell: Stock price fails to sustain the breakout above 87.04 or drops below 79.10.
Premium $1.14 · Break-even $88.64 · Δ 0.26
An out-of-the-money call with a delta of 0.26 that is cheap but highly sensitive to momentum. It requires a complete breakout above the 200-day SMA to yield substantial returns.
Buy: The stock successfully breaks and closes above 83.50.
Sell: The underlying stock reaches 87.00 or the contract premium falls below 0.50.
Premium $1.12 · Break-even $89.12 · Δ 0.26
The strike price of 88 is above the SMA200 resistance of 87.04, making it a riskier play with lower probability of success.
Buy: Buy only if NFLX breaks and holds above the SMA200 at 87.50 USD.
Sell: Sell if the stock fails to clear 84.00 USD within two weeks or if the premium drops by 40%.
Premium $2.37 · Break-even $88.87 · Δ 0.34
Offers moderate leverage with a later expiry, giving the stock more time to consolidate and break above the critical SMA200 resistance.
Buy: Buy if the stock demonstrates strong momentum above $81.00.
Sell: Sell if the contract premium reaches $4.00 or if the stock breaks down below $74.00.
Premium $2.32 · Break-even $87.32 · Δ 0.35
Offers a balanced risk-reward profile with a longer expiration to allow the stock to breach the 85 resistance level.
Buy: Buy if the underlying price exceeds 80.50 on rising volume.
Sell: Sell if the stock touches 88.00 or if the option value falls by 40%.
Premium $2.27 · Break-even $86.77 · Δ 0.34
While it has more time than the September series, the 84.5 strike remains too far out-of-the-money relative to the high premium cost.
Buy: Underlying stock price breaks above 81.00.
Sell: Underlying stock price drops below 76.00.
Premium $3.63 · Break-even $85.13 · Δ 0.48
This contract offers more time-value protection and a solid delta of 0.48, making it a safer vehicle for a sustained move.
Buy: Buy when the underlying asset price stabilizes above 79.00 USD.
Sell: Sell when the underlying asset hits 85.00 USD or the premium falls below 1.80 USD.
Premium $2.22 · Break-even $87.72 · Δ 0.34
This out-of-the-money option carries a higher premium risk relative to the 81.50 USD strike alternatives for our near-term target.
Buy: Buy if the underlying asset breaks above 81.50 USD on strong volume.
Sell: Sell when the underlying asset hits 85.00 USD or premium drops below 1.10 USD.
Premium $2.33 · Break-even $88.33 · Δ 0.35
Provides a balanced risk-reward profile with a buffer in expiration to absorb short-term volatility.
Buy: Underlying stock is sustained above 80.00 with stabilizing momentum indicators.
Sell: Underlying stock hits 88.00 or premium reaches 4.50.
Premium $3.79 · Break-even $84.79 · Δ 0.49
This option offers a better probability of success by providing an extra month for the thesis to play out, helping to buffer against potential short-term consolidation.
Buy: Buy if the stock consolidates near the current price of 79.59 while MACD stays positive.
Sell: Sell if the underlying hits the target price of 88.00 or falls below the stop loss of 74.00.
Premium $3.70 · Break-even $84.20 · Δ 0.48
Offers the best combination of delta and additional duration to safely ride the momentum up to the 85.00 target.
Buy: Underlying stock trades near the current price of 78.85.
Sell: Underlying stock price reaches 85.00 or drops below 74.00.
Premium $3.79 · Break-even $86.29 · Δ 0.48
This October contract provides the best blend of high delta and extra time cushion to absorb short-term volatility near the SMA200.
Buy: Buy if the stock price is between $79.50 and $81.00.
Sell: Sell if the underlying target of $88.00 is reached or if the premium drops by 40%.
Premium $3.78 · Break-even $85.78 · Δ 0.49
Offers the highest delta and extra time cushion, making it a safer vehicle for navigating potential near-term consolidation.
Buy: Underlying stock trades near the current level of 80.44 or on a mild pullback to 79.00.
Sell: Underlying stock hits the 88.00 target or contract premium reaches 6.00.
Premium $3.91 · Break-even $86.91 · Δ 0.49
An extra month of expiry compared to September provides a safer buffer for the bullish trend to play out, backed by a strong 0.49 delta.
Buy: Underlying stock price is above 80.00 USD with MACD remaining bullish.
Sell: Option premium reaches 6.50 USD or underlying stock drops below 76.50 USD.
Premium $3.99 · Break-even $84.99 · Δ 0.49
The elevated premium on this October contract reduces short-term tactical leverage relative to the September expiry.
Buy: Buy on a pullback of NFLX stock to 76.50 to secure a lower entry premium.
Sell: Sell when NFLX stock hits 88.00 or the contract premium drops to 2.00.
Premium $2.43 · Break-even $87.43 · Δ 0.36
The premium is heavily inflated for the additional month of expiry, making the risk-reward ratio less favorable than the September counterpart.
Buy: Option premium retraces below 2.00 USD on a stock dip to 77.50 USD.
Sell: Stock price reaches 86.00 USD.
Premium $4.03 · Break-even $86.03 · Δ 0.49
With a high premium of 4.03, this contract is expensive for short-term trading despite its solid 0.49 delta and longer duration.
Buy: Buy if the contract premium dips below 3.50 while NFLX remains above 80.00.
Sell: Sell if the underlying stock drops below 76.00 or reaches 88.00.
Premium $2.55 · Break-even $88.55 · Δ 0.36
This contract offers an extra month of duration compared to September, providing a safer buffer if the move toward 88 develops more slowly than expected.
Buy: Buy when the underlying stock price trades between 79.80 and 81.00.
Sell: Sell when the underlying stock reaches 88.00 or if the premium falls below 1.50.
Premium $3.74 · Break-even $85.24 · Δ 0.48
This longer-dated option offers a higher delta of 0.48 and more time to navigate potential consolidation before hitting the target.
Buy: NFLX stock price closes above 80.00.
Sell: NFLX stock reaches 87.00 or the premium drops below 1.80.
Premium $3.78 · Break-even $87.28 · Δ 0.48
Offers a higher delta of 0.48 and an extra month of duration to weather short-term consolidation before hitting the 87.50 target.
Buy: Buy if the stock maintains support above 81.00 on the daily chart.
Sell: Sell when stock price hits 87.50 or if underlying price breaches 76.50.
Premium $2.44 · Break-even $89.44 · Δ 0.35
This contract provides a balance of premium cost and delta (0.35) for a run towards the 87.50-88.00 resistance area.
Buy: The stock price holds above 81.50 USD.
Sell: The stock price touches 87.50 USD or option premium drops to 1.30 USD.
Premium $3.95 · Break-even $87.95 · Δ 0.48
Provides an extra month of runway, but the higher premium of 3.95 reduces short-term ROI efficiency compared to the September contract.
Buy: Buy if the stock pulls back to 79.50 and the premium drops below 3.50.
Sell: Sell if the stock exceeds 88.00 or the premium reaches 6.00.
Premium $2.34 · Break-even $90.34 · Δ 0.34
A cheaper alternative to the 83.5 strike, but strike is above key resistance, capping its near-term upside potential.
Buy: Buy if NFLX moves above 83.00 USD with strong momentum.
Sell: Sell if NFLX approaches 87.50 USD or the premium drops below 1.20 USD.
Premium $2.35 · Break-even $89.85 · Δ 0.34
Provides longer duration to capture a move to the SMA200 target with a moderate 0.34 delta.
Buy: Buy if the stock trades above 81.50 with an improving volume trend.
Sell: Sell if stock hits 87.50 or if the position loses 40% of its premium.
Premium $2.30 · Break-even $87.80 · Δ 0.34
The break-even price of 87.80 sits just above our main target of 87.00, reducing the appeal of this strike.
Buy: NFLX stock sustains a move above 82.00.
Sell: NFLX stock reaches 87.00 or premium falls below 1.00.
Premium $3.80 · Break-even $86.30 · Δ 0.49
While this option provides slightly more time, the significantly higher premium of 3.80 USD relative to the September equivalent reduces its immediate attractiveness.
Buy: Buy if the contract premium dips below 3.20 USD while the stock maintains support above 79.00 USD.
Sell: Sell if the underlying stock hits 87.00 USD or if the premium drops to 2.00 USD.
Premium $2.35 · Break-even $88.85 · Δ 0.35
The high premium relative to the September 86.5 strike limits potential percentage gains for traders looking for near-term momentum.
Buy: Buy if the contract premium falls below 1.80 USD during a brief stock pullback.
Sell: Sell if the underlying stock reaches 87.00 USD or if the premium falls below 1.20 USD.
Premium $2.43 · Break-even $88.93 · Δ 0.35
The high premium of 2.43 relative to the OTM strike reduces the risk-reward ratio compared to the 82.5 strike alternatives.
Buy: Buy if the underlying crosses 82.50 within the next two weeks.
Sell: Sell if the underlying momentum reverses and the MACD shows a bearish crossover.
Premium $3.88 · Break-even $86.38 · Δ 0.48
This is the most balanced contract, offering a higher delta of 0.48 and additional time to absorb short-term consolidation before reaching our target.
Buy: Buy when the underlying trade volume begins to recover above the 10-day average.
Sell: Sell when the underlying stock reaches 87.00 or if the underlying drops below 77.50.
Premium $2.53 · Break-even $90.53 · Δ 0.36
While the extra month of expiry helps, the 88 strike remains above our near-term target and major SMA200 resistance.
Buy: Buy if the underlying price exceeds 84.00 USD with a surge in volume.
Sell: Sell if the stock reverses below 80.00 USD or if the target of 87.00 USD is reached.
Premium $2.61 · Break-even $89.61 · Δ 0.36
This contract is cheaper but carries a high break-even price of 89.61, which is significantly above the crucial SMA200 resistance.
Buy: Buy if NFLX clears the $83.00 level with strong momentum.
Sell: Sell if the stock fails to breach $85.00 by mid-expiry or if the premium falls below $1.30.
Premium $4.02 · Break-even $88.02 · Δ 0.49
Offers a slightly higher delta and an extra month of duration, giving the trade more time to mature if the initial breakout stalls.
Buy: NFLX stock clears 82.50 with an active upward volume trend.
Sell: NFLX stock hits 86.50 or stock price drops below 78.50.
Premium $2.42 · Break-even $90.92 · Δ 0.35
While the additional time to expiration helps, the strike of 88.5 is still situated above key structural resistance. We prefer closer-to-the-money options given the declining volume trend.
Buy: Stock price clears 87.04 on strong buying volume.
Sell: Stock price breaks below the 50-day SMA at 75.29.
Premium $2.52 · Break-even $90.02 · Δ 0.36
This contract has a break-even of 90.02, which is above the 200-day SMA resistance. It is best held or entered only after a definitive macro breakout of the underlying stock.
Buy: The stock clears the 84.00 mark on above-average volume.
Sell: The underlying stock reaches 87.00 or the contract premium falls below 1.25.
Premium $3.99 · Break-even $87.49 · Δ 0.49
With a delta of 0.49 and an extra month of expiry, this contract provides optimal exposure for a steady grind toward the target. It balances directional exposure with a high probability of success.
Buy: The stock confirms support at 81.50 with a positive daily MACD histogram.
Sell: The underlying stock hits 87.00 or the contract premium falls below 2.00.
Premium $4.09 · Break-even $87.09 · Δ 0.49
With an extra month of expiry and a solid delta of 0.49, this option provides better protection against a slower-than-expected run toward the target price.
Buy: Buy if the stock remains above $81.00 with supporting MACD indicators.
Sell: Sell if the stock price reaches $87.00 or if the option premium drops below $2.00.
Premium $3.85 · Break-even $88.35 · Δ 0.48
An extra month of duration gives this contract a higher chance of success to capture a potential breakout above the 200-day SMA resistance. Delta of 0.48 provides strong participation in the upward move.
Buy: Stock price trades above 82.67 with rising volume.
Sell: Stock price reaches 87.00 or the contract value falls by 35%.